43 replies to this topic

[Serafine]

Social distancing and quarantine measures ARE slowing down the virus. They do not stop the virus, they never were meant to do. How do you get the idea that because the infection rate has stabilized (on a still fairly high level) it's fine to reopen everything and stop social distancing?

That's like saying "my skin infection hasn't gotten worse in the last days so I don't need to take the rest of my meds".

 

The current Coronavirus has an estimated r value of 2.5 with an interval of around 4 days. This means without measures 1000 infected people will on average infect 2500 other people every 4 days.

In New York this rate was actually much higher, cases tripled every two days.

Lockdown measures only take effect after 10-14 days (because that's your incubation period when people are infected but don't get sick yet).

New York went into lockdown with 5000 confirmed cases, just do the math.

 

Right now cases are exploding in several meat packing plants - which of course even though doctors strongly recommended to shut them down aren't closing because screw working class peasants (and their families, and their friends) - that second wave might already be on it's way.

Edited by Serafine, May 10 2020 - 7:38 PM.

[dspdrew]

In my opinion, going to work is fine. Doing stupid, unnecessary crap that just furthers the spread of the virus for no reason is not. And with the media constantly putting out this idea that it's all behind us now, it's totally fueling this stupidity. I've been lucky enough to be able to work from home, but because of this crap, the people running the company I work for think it's a great idea to force us all back in the office again, while they even stated themselves, that we have been performing just as good, and in some cases, even better working from home. More stupid, totally unnecessary crap that is now going to put me in the positioning of either risking my health, or finding another job after working at this company for 13 years.

[BugFinder]

Social distancing and quarantine measures ARE slowing down the virus. They do not stop the virus, they never were meant to do. How do you get the idea that because the infection rate has stabilized (on a still fairly high level) it's fine to reopen everything and stop social distancing?

That's like saying "my skin infection hasn't gotten worse in the last days so I don't need to take the rest of my meds".

 

The current Coronavirus has an estimated r value of 2.5 with an interval of around 4 days. This means without measures 1000 infected people will on average infect 2500 other people every 4 days.

In New York this rate was actually much higher, cases tripled every two days.

Lockdown measures only take effect after 10-14 days (because that's your incubation period when people are infected but don't get sick yet).

New York went into lockdown with 5000 confirmed cases, just do the math.

 

Right now cases are exploding in several meat packing plants - which of course even though doctors strongly recommended to shut them down aren't closing because screw working class peasants (and their families, and their friends) - that second wave might already be on it's way.

 

it's not that the infection rate has stabilized.  it's the hospital capacity, combined with the fact the infection rate has stabilzed.  We can't shelter in place forever, and this virus isn't going away.  It's time to go back to work..

 

If you can work from home, that's great.  Not everyone works in a job that can be done from anywhere.

[drtrmiller]

...but because of this crap, the people running the company I work for think it's a great idea to force us all back in the office again, while they even stated themselves, that we have been performing just as good, and in some cases, even better working from home.

 

Edited by drtrmiller, May 10 2020 - 8:54 PM.

[Serafine]

it's not that the infection rate has stabilized.  it's the hospital capacity, combined with the fact the infection rate has stabilzed.  We can't shelter in place forever, and this virus isn't going away.  It's time to go back to work..

Nothing has really stabilized - most places in the US (in fact most places around the world) haven't even been properly hit yet. Quarantine and social distancing have mostly prevented large outbreaks from popping up in the first place.

It's like people thinking they made it through the flooding because sandbag walls and provisional dams managed to keep the waters back so far - except the water isn't gone, they just don't have wet feet because the barrier prevented it from flowing into their homes. One breach and they're all going to get swept away.

 

Most european countries are slowly starting to open up, step by step, with the option to go back into local lockdown should cases rise above a certain threshold in individual communities - in Germany right now only classes writing their final exam this year are going to school (people in risk groups can stay home) and even then they only do core subjects with class sizes halved, most universities have pretty much written off this spring/summer semester already. Public events are banned until August 31st, shops can only let in a certain number of customers at a time and they have to wear face masks while inside the shop. Communities with more than 50 infections per 100.000 citizens have to go back into full lockdown because this disease spreads like wildfire (so far four counties already had to do that within the first week and 50 cases per 100k citizens isn't a minor fire either, it's the epidemiological equivalent of your entire roof standing in flames - it took New York barely three weeks to go from 5000 infections to beyond 150.000).

 

Problem is Trump wants to open up everything, entirely, right now and end mandatory social distancing as well - if he really pushes this through he could as well not have bothered with any sort of quarantine in the first place - two to three weeks of unlimited spread are entirely sufficient to completely negate any and all measures that have been taken so far. Every state will become a New York. All the economic damage, all the psychological strain on people will have been for nothing.

Edited by Serafine, May 11 2020 - 2:44 AM.

[AntsDakota]

The result is a culture where citizens won't listen to their government even if it tries to save their lives because who are they to tell them what to do

 

with VERY libertarian governments that are also considered untrustworthy liars even by their own supporters.

Ok, so these untrustworthy, VERY libertarian governments are looking out for our own interest and trying to save our lives? Wow. That makes a lot of sense.

[NickAnter]

   And, if we didn't ship ventilators and other equipment overseas in the beginning, to CHINA, we would not have had to be extremely sudden and complete in our economic shutdown.  And, the vulnerable people know that they are vulnerable. They don't have to go back to normal. And, by the way, there has been 410,000 hospitalizations of the flu, which is more than the numbers of Covid-19, which only has 144,780 hospitalizations. Of course, more people with covid will die, but it is still hospitalizations. Also, shutting down so called "elective" procedures will, and is killing people.

 

South Dakota's governor did not issue a stay at home order. And is South Dakota experiencing horrible waves of sick people? NO! They are not New York City, and are far less population dense, and so should react differently.

 

They only have 31 deaths.

 

The country SHOULD NOT be treated like New York City.

[AntsDakota]

   And, if we didn't ship ventilators and other equipment overseas in the beginning, to CHINA, we would not have had to be extremely sudden and complete in our economic shutdown.  And, the vulnerable people know that they are vulnerable. They don't have to go back to normal. And, by the way, there has been 410,000 hospitalizations of the flu, which is more than the numbers of Covid-19, which only has 144,780 hospitalizations. Of course, more people with covid will die, but it is still hospitalizations. Also, shutting down so called "elective" procedures will, and is killing people.

 

South Dakota's governor did not issue a stay at home order. And is South Dakota experiencing horrible waves of sick people? NO! They are not New York City, and are far less population dense, and so should react differently.

 

They only have 31 deaths.

 

The country SHOULD NOT be treated like New York City.

I agree. And besides: South Dakota doesn't have any more COVID cases per million pop (and an extremely low death rate) compared to the rest of the nation (even with states with lower populations than itself), meaning that shut downs do not help.

Edited by AntsDakota, May 11 2020 - 7:06 AM.

[AntsDakota]

And no one here had better call Governor Noem stupid, or anything South Dakota, whether it has to do with COVID or not. Because I will not tolerate it.

[Serafine]

They only have 31 deaths.

 

The country SHOULD NOT be treated like New York City.

No, they shouldn't.

They should take precautions (like social distancing and face masks), make high efforts on testing and order local shutdowns if needed though.

 

A recent antibody mass test of several thousand people in LA county showed that 3.4% of all adults there either had or have Corona, that's 250.000 - 450.000 potentially infectious people running around in LA county alone (most of them are only experienced mild symptoms or even none at all). LA county has around 30.000 confirmed cases (10% of the likely real number) and around 1500 deaths.

 

San Diego county has around 5000 infected and 175 deaths. Doesn't really sound that much, right?

Now remember that New York state went into lockdown with 5000 confirmed infections and had over 150.000 infections 3 weeks later (which then continued to rise to over 330.000 confirmed cases and 25.000 deaths).

This thing can get out of control incredibly fast.

 

 

 

Ok, so these untrustworthy, VERY libertarian governments are looking out for our own interest and trying to save our lives? Wow. That makes a lot of sense.

 

They just don't want to screw up things so hard that people start turning on them.

 

This is the reason Boris Johnson (aka Bojo the clown) was favoring the "herd immunity" strategy first (which basically meant letting the virus spread through the country without doing anything, he backed down from that only after experts told him this would result in 2 million people dying which would have ended his political career), the reason he is trying to hide the real death numbers (the NHS only counts people who died from Corona in hospitals for the official statistics, people dying at home don't count, people dying in care homes don't count, people sent home untested with clear symptoms because the government didn't bother to order test kits and end up dying aren't counted), it's the reason he FORBID the devolved parliaments to order PPE on their own (because it would look terrible if Scotland actually did better than England - if the little englanders are dying due to the sheer stupidity and incompetence of their government the scots have to die just as much), it's the reason after refusing to join the EU's cooperative PPE buying scheme (because Brexit and the UK "can do things on their own") he joined it anyway when it got to a point where the NHS was about to revolt and threatened to refuse treating patients.

 

The recently leaked "Exercise Cygnus" report (which is now freely available on the internet for everyone to read), a pandemic outbreak simulation study from 2016 clearly shows that everyone was aware the UK was utterly unprepared for a national healthcare emergency situation yet the Tory government spent FOUR YEARS doing absolutely NOTHING about it. Not ONE of the recommended measures was implement, they didn't even talk with care home companies about it. Actually they LESS than nothing, they managed to drive thousands of nurses and hundreds of doctors out of the country with their stupid Brexit agenda.

It's all about exploiting people without pushing them to breaking point.

 

The same can be said about Trump in the US, although Trump is a tad more extreme than even Boris Johnson. Trump ordered meat packing plants to stay open no matter the number of corona infections among their workforce. He was all in on "full churches on easter" (at this point let's not forget that Biden's team and the DNC were absolutely okay with holding the Wisconsin primary in the middle of a global pandemic until they could turn it into a republican-bad story). Remember that Trump essentially fired the pandemic response team full of experts because he thought he didn't need it (And probably also because he despises experts). Look at how Trump used the crisis to suspend all kinds of environmental protection laws.

Remember that there is still a case pending for SCOTUS to entirely destroy Obamacare in the middle of a global pandemic. Actually, even Mitch McConnel who has been pushing this thing from the start is now backing off and telling Trump to drop the case because even McConnell can see how stupid and politically damaging this would be (also McConnel is actually in risk of losing his senate seat) - the question is can Trump see it or is he going to strip millions of americans off their healthcare access during the predicted second wave in his fury to eradicate everything that has Obama written on it, no matter the cost.

 

Yet there are still enough people voting for Trump and he might actually even win because the DNC has chosen to field the worst candidate they could possibly find in decades (a candidate known for pushing social security cuts too extreme for the Reagan era republicans, a candidate who indicated he'd veto Medicare4all even if it should miraculously pass the house and the senate, a candidate who has zero support among college students and young people, a candidate with family members potentially involved into corruption in a foreign country, a candidate that now has a godawful sexual assault allegation at his hands, a candidate who frequently loses his train of thought and can't even get through a live interview or just a townhall meeting without suffering from brain malfunctions) because the democrat establishment, no matter what they say, doesn't care about the average citizen or their rights either - the way they turned on women's rights and me-too as soon as it didn't fit their political requirements is AMAZING - they made a u-turn that puts a housefly to shame. Overall they don't care just as much as Trump but are way smarter about it and sometimes drop a few bread crumbs so the working class peasants don't rise up and demand their heads.

Edited by Serafine, May 11 2020 - 7:43 AM.

[AntsDakota]

To me, this just says that you don't just hate one party or the other. You hate America.

[NickAnter]

You accuse Trump of using the crisis to suspend eviromental protection??? Well, lets see what the Demorats were doing. They were the ones trying to push their insane no carbon emissions policy, when they refuse to realize that forest fires are actually as bad, and that it is water vapor, yes water vapor, that is the most damaging. Also, they spent 35 million dollars on the Kennedy Center. Yeah, that's completely related to covid.  Also, any company that gets covid related aid is required to disclose their diversity statistics. Like that matters.

[Serafine]

To me, this just says that you don't just hate one party or the other. You hate America.

Yep, just because I don't like two largest political parties' establishments I must hate the country.

Nice logic there.

[AntsDakota]

I actually do think America has gone down in moral values pretty quickly. This country was founded upon many noble principles, most of which have gone out the window by now. The fact that there are two political parties that hate each other is just wrong. And guess what- nobody cares.

[NickAnter]

Can we all agree to let this thread sink into the depths like it should?

[Temperateants]

   And, if we didn't ship ventilators and other equipment overseas in the beginning, to CHINA, we would not have had to be extremely sudden and complete in our economic shutdown.  And, the vulnerable people know that they are vulnerable. They don't have to go back to normal. And, by the way, there has been 410,000 hospitalizations of the flu, which is more than the numbers of Covid-19, which only has 144,780 hospitalizations. Of course, more people with covid will die, but it is still hospitalizations. Also, shutting down so called "elective" procedures will, and is killing people.

 

South Dakota's governor did not issue a stay at home order. And is South Dakota experiencing horrible waves of sick people? NO! They are not New York City, and are far less population dense, and so should react differently.

 

They only have 31 deaths.

 

The country SHOULD NOT be treated like New York City.

I agree. China has done so much wrong in this outbreak. Hoarding the medical supplies, and selling nonfunctional supplies to other countries. Western journalists have just eaten that all up, all of the propaganda. In addition, we should NOT work together, because it means working on China's terms, which basically means we stop trying to hold them responsible, and we give them free stuff. 

[ANTdrew]

All of you have some good points, but I really, really don’t want to be reading any more of this left vs right arguing. There’re a million other venues for that sort of thing. I come here to learn about insects and tune that crap out. No offense, but I wish you all would cease and desist.

[VenomousBeast]

All of you have some good points, but I really, really don’t want to be reading any more of this left vs right arguing. There’re a million other venues for that sort of thing. I come here to learn about insects and tune that crap out. No offense, but I wish you all would cease and desist.

If there was a Love button to push to react to this I would've already pushed it!

[Nare]

and that it is water vapor, yes water vapor, that is the most damaging.

IIRC water vapor stays in the atmosphere for a much shorter time (think precipitation) than CO2 and other gasses, whereas CO2 stays up there for "years and even centuries". It is also not something we can control - we don't have factories emitting water vapor to the extent that we emit CO2 (Can't verify this). In addition, water vapor is responsible for "feedback loops" which amplify the "potency" of CO2. So ultimately, you are correct in saying that water vapor is potent, but it is not the cause of man-made climate change, and CO2 is still the worst offender (and thus plans to reduce CO2 emissions are still valid in the context of reducing further climate change). See https://www.skeptica...enhouse-gas.htm for more details.

Climate change isn't a political issue, even though many people (including myself) are guilty of making it one from time to time. We should try to remove it from party politics as much as possible. It's something that everyone has a vested interest in preventing, whether they realize it or not.

[jushi]

There's many politics forums this can be discussed on. Why of all places would you choose to put this here?

Edited by jushi, May 15 2020 - 2:24 PM.