On Wednesday, i was out on a walk and saw several queen camponotus ants wandering on the ground right outside various camponotus nests (i assume these are infertile but i was excited so i picked one up). we got some decent rain here in WI and warm temperatures so went for a walk this morning. Is seeing these queens outside the nest usually an indication that they may decide to fly soon? I'm pretty sure camponotus queens fly at night time, but was hoping to see some founding chambers this morning after the rain we got Thursday and Friday but didn't see any.
Yes, indeed it is. They tend to come out in suitable conditions, but if there is rain right after they post outside their nests, they will not fly. If you also didn't have rain at night, then they may have flew but the thing about Camponotus (at least in my area) is that the de-alate queens like to nest in wood. Check in fallen logs (carefully tear apart the wood with a hammer or screw driver. look for holes and openings and cavities that are about the size of a Camponotus queen) or in tree openings (I found a Camponotus nearcticus queen on a large Norway Maple opening carved by my neighborhood's Pileated woodpecker) or under rocks (found a Camponotus subbarbatus under one before) after a nuptial flight (or if you see alates posted at nest entrances like how you did).
To summarize, instead of looking on the ground, look in logs or tree openings or under rocks after a nuptial flight for a better chances of finding fertile Camponotus queens.
Hope this helps! Good luck!